Early Santa vibes

Good morning!

I am sure you enjoyed yesterday’s rally and took advantage fully of the upward trend. If you followed our updates on Twitter you saw that we turned bullish and trimmed along the way. Both the $SPY and $QQQ participated in this move and we embraced it with open arms as the levels were reached and surpassed. Yesterday was a show of the full force of recovery in the American market, which proves once again to be strong and healthy. However, in order to keep the money you need to trim along the way, and find good spots to buy dips. Today we might digest yesterday’s gap up and therefore it is not a good idea to chase things if you missed them. We have a few ticks left both in $SPY and $QQQ until all time highs, but in my opinion the lows for the year have been put in last Friday. We are still waiting for macro news, like Omicron implications, CPI numbers and inflationary pressures, but they may already be priced in.

$AAPL Chart

I told you I would pick up this one if the $QQQ is at the right levels for me, and I did. It made new all time highs and them some. Apple has been on a roll for the past week despite all the carnage that took place in the market, as money likes to hide here in turbulent times. I trimmed most of my position in $AAPL and I am left with only a third of my stock and some call options. It would be constructive to hold  $170 for continuation and some days of sideways movement are healthy. Don’t jump the gun buying today if you missed yesterday. Wait for market discovery and pick your buying spot carefully. If it goes under $168 I am out of this stock as we may see some profit taking.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vhflSq3X/

$MSFT Chart

Microsoft was in oversold territory and buyers came in happily to ride the uptrend wave. I got involved in this stock Monday afternoon with a very small position, I trimmed in pre-market and then bought heavily and trimmed along the way when it passed $330.90 and $332.70. I have only a third of my position left as I am waiting to see if we have continuation. We have plenty of space until $339, and I am looking to be a buyer after the market opens if it holds $332.70.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oATCL0Iy/

$PYPL Chart

On Monday when $PYPL signaled a reversal I got involved in this stock and trimmed yesterday in pre-market. When it passed all the lines I added and then trimmed all the way to the highs. I have only a trailer left as this was more like an oversold bounce type of trade for me. You can keep $PYPL in your portfolio as long as it stays above $188.43. I am looking to be a buyer today again if it shows continuation.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YIb2XbL3/

I chose some strong stocks, one that made new all-time highs, one that recovered in a very strong manner, and a broken one which may be in reversal mode. I want to show you that if you use technical analysis, combined with macro news and experience you can be a winner in the market. It is all about patterns, trends and timing. If you fight any of these just to be right you may find yourself a loser. I can admit I did this more times than I care to admit, but the idea is to accept your mistakes and learn from them. It is easy to comment with 20-20 hindsight, but the idea is to use all the edges in your portfolio to produce cash flow. You have only two options in the market, to be a winner or a loser. The idea is that you’ll be both along the way, but in order to increase your wins and surpass your losses you need to be consistent and disciplined. Don’t get emotional or prejudiced because the market does not care about your emotions, take every tape as a fresh slate. How many times in life do you get to do that? This is a big advantage in the market, that you can start fresh everyday and you find opportunities everyday. Follow your friend, the trend, your instincts and your compass – technical analysis.

For more in-depth analysis read Alex’s Morning Game Plan, in which he presents all our portfolio and tactics. Stay tuned to our Twitter updates.

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